Ore Supply Tightness, Tin Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [Institutional Commentary]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 282,290 yuan/mt, up 0.32% (as of 3 PM Friday). Domestically, SHFE futures registered warrants increased by 208 mt, now standing at 8,830 mt. On the tin fundamentals, a strong earthquake occurred in Myanmar at 14:20 on March 28, which may delay the resumption of tin ore production. Ore supply remains tight, with tin ore imports significantly declining from January to February, providing strong support for tin prices. The resumption of mining in Myanmar is expected to ease ore supply in the future. Currently, consumption has entered the peak season, and tin ingot production remains at a high level, with tin overall showing a strong supply and demand situation. As the peak consumption season approaches, domestic inventory is currently at a relatively high level, while LME inventory remains low. Attention should be paid to subsequent inventory changes. SHFE tin is expected to hover at highs in the future. The reference trading range for the domestic most-traded contract is 260,000-320,000 yuan. The reference trading range for overseas LME tin is $34,000-$39,000.